MORE SARAH - AT 7:23 P.M. ET:  I've been monitoring TV cable news and internet reaction to Sarah Palin's announcement that she is leaving the governorship of Alaska.

Some analysts believe it's a poor move, anticipating that Palin's opponents will depict her as erratic, a quitter, someone who left the governor's chair in the midst of a devastating recession, someone who can't stand the pressure of office, or the attacks of the press.  And indeed, Palin did mention, at her news conference today, the viciousness of the attacks on her and her family.

On the other hand, others say that this will free Sarah to expand her horizons and become more of a true national figure in the "lower 48," as Alaskans call the mainland.  They also point out that the intense partisanship surrounding Palin, ever since her selection last year as John McCain's vice presidential candidate, has made it extremely difficult for her to get more done as governor.

It is much to early to assess this.  In politics, as in war, most of the news of the first day turns out to be wrong.  I recall when Richard Nixon, having been defeated for president in 1960, was defeated for governor of California two years later.  He held a press conference in which he famously said, "You won't have Nixon to kick around anymore."  ABC News aired a documentary called "Richard Nixon:  A Political Obituary."  Six years later he was elected president, and was reelected in a landslide in 1972.  Watergate finally brought him down.

The difference, of course, is that Nixon was a seasoned political figure, with a record as a senator and as vice president.  Sarah Palin has only a few years as governor of Alaska, and her national campaign last year exposed serious flaws.

As Mort Sahl used to say, "The future lies ahead."  It is impossible to predict the Sarah arc.  She does things her way, and her way only.  Charles Krauthammer pointed out this evening how young she is, and that, if she's willing to skip 2012, she would be well primed for 2016 or 2020.  She's only 45.  In 2016 she'll be 52, and 56 in 2020. 

The question is how she maintains herself as a national figure without holding elective office.  She can't run for governor again, and a Senate seat in Alaska may be a long shot. 

A tough road ahead for Sarah, but don't underestimate her.  She still has personal magnetism, something you can't buy from political consultants.  Ronald Reagan had been out of the governor's chair in California for five years when he was elected president in 1980.  Of course, he'd served two terms as governor of our most populous state.

And please remember that we can't predict national or international events.  Sarah can fade away, considered by many to be unprepared for the vast challenges of the 21st century.  Or, she can be just what the nation will want after the tumultuous, and ultimately unsuccessful age of Obama. 

Stay tuned.  When Franklin Roosevelt ran for president in 1932, Walter Lippmann described him as a man with no qualifications for the presidency.  Turned out well for Roosevelt.

July 3, 2009